基于云物元理论的钻井平台海上风险预警模型研究

Study on maritime environment risk pre-warning model of drilling platform based on cloud matter-element theory

关键词:  钻井平台  海上环境  风险预警  云模型  物元理论  G1法 

Key words:  drilling platform  maritime environment  pre-warning assessment  cloud model  matter-element theory  G1 method

摘要:

针对钻井平台海上环境风险预警评价过程中存在不确定性因素的特点,充分考虑预警等级边界信息的模糊性和随机性,借助物元可拓理论在定性、定量分析问题具备的优势和云模型理论的双重不确定推理特性,提出基于云物元理论的钻井平台海上风险预警评价模型。采用G1法确定预警指标的权重系数,建立钻井平台海上环境风险预警评价的标准正态云物元模型,计算待评物元与标准正态云物元之间的关联度,引入置信度准则识别风险预警等级。最后,通过工程案例验证了所提出方法的实用性和优越性。 

Abstract:

Aiming at some uncertain factors in maritime environment risk pre-warning assessment process of drilling platforms, a risk pre-warning assessment model was proposed based on cloud matter-element theory by fully considering the fuzziness and randomness of pre-warning assessment process, and taking advantages of the qualitative and quantitative analysis of matter-element theory and the double uncertain reasoning characteristic of cloud model theory. Index weight was identified by G1 method. A standard normal cloud matter-element model was established for risk pre-warning assessment. The correlation degree between the matter-element to be assessed and standard normal cloud matter-element model was calculated. On this basis, risk pre-warning level was discerned by confidence coefficient criterion. Finally, the practicability and superiority of the new model were verified through engineering cases.