预测天然气水合物生成条件回归公式的评价

Evaluation of regression formula for predicating natural gas hydrate formation conditions

关键词:  天然气水合物  形成条件  回归公式 

Key words:  natural gas hydrate  formation condition  regression formula

摘要:

水合物的生成会给天然气生产和集输过程带来极大的困难,准确预测水合物形成条件至关重要。归纳总结了预测天然气水合物形成温度的回归公式,包括Makogon公式、Towler公式、Bahadori公式。通过比较公式计算值与实验值,计算出平均相对误差来评价各公式的计算精度。计算结果表明,对于非酸性天然气,3种公式的平均相对误差分别为0.55%、0.40%和0.43%。对于低含CO₂天然气,3种公式的平均相对误差分别为0.41%、0.32%和0.52%。Towler公式的计算精度最高。此外,3种公式均无法准确预测含硫天然气的水合物形成温度。 

Abstract:

The formation of natural gas hydrate can cause severe problems in natural gas production and transmission. Thus, it is essential to accurately predicate the hydrate formation conditions. In view of this, the main regression formulas for predicating hydrate formation temperature were reviewed and evaluated. These formulas include Makogon formula, Towler formula and Bahadori formula. By comparing the calculated and experimental value of hydrate formation temperatures, the average relative deviation (ARD) was obtained. For sweet gas, the ARD is 0.55%, 0.40% and 0.43%, respectively. For gas with low CO₂ content, the ARD is 0.41%,0.32% and 0.52%, respectively. The Towler formula shows much better results than the other two formulas. For sour gas, the above three formulas can not accurately predicate the hydrate formation temperatures.